[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 131107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131107
ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-131230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0900
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST AR/FAR EASTERN MO INTO IL AND WESTERN
KY/WESTERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 131107Z - 131230Z

ELEVATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
EASTWARD FROM FAR EASTERN MO/NORTHEAST AR INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
A RISK OF SEVERE HAIL. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS FAR EASTERN MO/NORTHEAST AR
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...AMIDST AN
ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME SUPPORTED BY A
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. WITH AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR
THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND SOURCE REGION MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION/SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING THE OVERALL EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF
THE SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
SEVERE WATCH.

..GUYER.. 05/13/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...

40209143 40218930 37488830 35459015 35919125 38719136



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