[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111510
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111510
WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-111645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0887
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE OH...ERN KY...ERN TN...WV...SW VA...WRN
NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 306...

VALID 111510Z - 111645Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 306 CONTINUES.

CELL MOTIONS APPEAR NORTHEAST AT 45-50 KTS...WHILE BROKEN
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ADVANCES EASTWARD AT AROUND 35 KTS.  LINE
APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE
17-19Z TIME FRAME...UPON WHICH INFLOW OF COOL/DRY AND STABLE AIR
LIKELY WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING TRENDS.  BOUNDARY LAYER AIR TO THE
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...BUT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR SURFACE
HEATING AHEAD OF STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE.  AND...DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL COULD STILL INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN.  HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A 50-60+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET CORE
ARE LARGE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED...SO THE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT
NEGLIGIBLE.  HIGHEST POTENTIAL MAY BE NORTHEAST OF MORRISTOWN TN
INTO THE BIG STONE RIDGE AREA OF SOUTHWEST VA...WHERE MID/UPPER 50S
SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY RETURN BETWEEN NOW AND 17Z.

..KERR.. 05/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

36568297 37328257 38128241 38928201 39318063 39007981
38257992 36668171 36038271 36138332

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