[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 030405
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030404
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-030530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LA/MS INTO FAR EASTERN AR AND AL/TN.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 253...254...255...

VALID 030404Z - 030530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
253...254...255...CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCHES 253/254 ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z. WITH A
SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...REPLACEMENT
WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE COORDINATED WITHIN THE HOUR. TORNADO WATCH
255 CONTINUES UNTIL 07Z...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE REPLACED AS WELL WITHIN
THE HOUR.

REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A GRADUAL EVOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS TOWARD A COLD FRONTAL/LINEAR FORCING DOMINATED REGIME...WITH A
FEW BROKEN LINES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ANGLING SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
FROM NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER INTO SOUTHEAST AR/NORTHERN MS AND
WESTERN/MIDDLE TN. WITH NORTH EXTENT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION/EXPANDING COLD POOLS ACROSS WESTERN/MIDDLE TN SUGGEST
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTH...A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PRECEDE THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND EXISTING CLUSTERS OF STORMS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAR EAST TX INTO LA/MS...WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG. AS REFLECTED IN REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D DERIVED
WINDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...AND SUPERCELLS WITH ANY QUASI-DISCRETE STORMS.
PRIMARY RISKS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF
200-400 MS/S2 WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINEAR BOWS.

REPLACEMENT WATCHES ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO 05Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF LA/MS...AND PERHAPS INTO AL.

..GUYER.. 05/03/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

30689172 30599363 31479396 32409320 34829000 35628649
32198866 31319030



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