[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021521
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021520
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-021645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0771
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN AND ERN AR...PARTS OF THE MO
BOOTHEEL/WRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 249...

VALID 021520Z - 021645Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 249 CONTINUES.

TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN AR APPEARS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BETWEEN NOW AND 17-18Z.

PRIMARY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...BUT TRAILING LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE
STILL WEST OF JONESBORO/LITTLE ROCK AND TEXARKANA REMAINS THE FOCUS
FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT INHIBITION FOR THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID/UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS...TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THIS ZONE...HAS ALREADY BECOME
WEAK...WITH CAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG.  THOUGH MID-LEVEL
FORCING HAS WEAKENED IN THE WAKE OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSE NOW PIVOTING
NORTHEAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU...DISCRETE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST BENEATH BROADLY DIFLUENT CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW.
IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...LOW- LEVEL SHEAR NEAR A 60 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
CORE...NOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OF LITTLE ROCK TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE OF
THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVERS...IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
ACTIVITY.  ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 05/02/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...

33979345 34689273 35289192 35929111 36269076 36389040
36298965 35678950 34989010 33739141 33409336

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