[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 192319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192319
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-200045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0477
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WV...WRN VA...ERN TN...FAR WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136...

VALID 192319Z - 200045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136
CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE OVER FAR ERN KY AND FAR ERN
TN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
ALTHOUGH STILL UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS THAT A WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY
EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED 996 MB SFC LOW CENTERED OVER
WV WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS ERN TN INTO NE AL. RUC
ANALYSIS HAS A 60 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THE CONVECTION IS ONGOING. THE LATEST
WSR-88D VWP AT GREENVILLE SC SEEMS TO BE SAMPLING THE JET WELL WITH
MOSTLY UNDIRECTIONAL WINDS BELOW 2 KM SUGGESTING THE WIND
ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A THREAT FOR HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST DUE TO COLD
TEMPS ALOFT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME VERY LIMITED AFTER
02Z AND A WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED IF RECENT DOWNTRENDS IN CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY CONTINUE.

..BROYLES.. 03/19/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

34988302 35018476 35258469 35298448 35388443 35678450
35668432 35638414 35788421 35898409 35858386 35998367
36068369 36168350 36388323 36588283 36648295 36968251
36908232 37018235 37198248 37578196 37708222 37848240
38018222 38248229 38408205 38298199 38458183 38588173
38608157 38538133 38628101 38538072 38198035 38078024
38077991 37828014 37648024 37358036 37028109 37018136
36858128 36718131 36658155 36418174 36338177 36098211
36178224 36058240 35858241 35748267 35678291 35428276



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