[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 190614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190613
KYZ000-TNZ000-190715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN INTO WRN/CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 132...

VALID 190613Z - 190715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 132 CONTINUES.

BUT...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
ISOLATED.  AND...AN ADDITIONAL WW TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF WW 132 IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

NARROW BAND OF STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...NOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO RIVERS...APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE/SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL JET CORE
SHIFTING OUT OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH INTO CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.  CONVECTION IS SPREADING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
WITH PROGRESSIVELY STABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND IT IS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER DESTABILIZATION...EVEN WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF LINE...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN CLOUD
ELECTRIFICATION.

HOWEVER...CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 65
CORRIDOR...NORTH OF NASHVILLE INTO THE LOUISVILLE AREA BETWEEN NOW
AND 09-10Z.  AND...SUB CLOUD BASE TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS MAY
BE LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO MIX
DOWN STRONGER MOMENTUM...NEAR 50-60+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET...TO THE SURFACE.  THUS...RISK OF SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
MAY CONTINUE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF EXPIRING WATCH AT LEAST
ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS.

..KERR.. 03/19/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

36518862 37248770 37958589 38048549 37688512 36728569
36388610 36028691 35678756 35218857 35048923 35158947
35878895

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