[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 190144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190143
KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-190315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0843 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN TX THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL AR...WRN TN
AND SWRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 132...

VALID 190143Z - 190315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 132 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE NEXT
FEW HOURS OVER REMAINING PARTS OF WW 132. BOWING SEGMENTS OVER SWRN
KY ARE APPROACHING ERN EDGE OF WW. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS
TOO STABLE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL KY TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW AT THIS
TIME. STORMS MOVING INTO NERN TX AND EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN LA OR SW
AR MAY POSE A RELATIVELY HIGHER SEVERE THREAT.

QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN KY SWWD TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW
IN NERN TX. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR THE FRONT TO DEVELOP SLOWLY SWD AS
IT IS REINFORCED BY WIDESPREAD RENEWED RAIN DEVELOPMENT TO ITS
NORTH. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP
LIFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG NOSE OF A BROAD SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND TENDENCY FOR SOME STORMS TO
BE UNDERCUT BY THE SWD SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS
LIMITING FACTORS FOR SOME STORMS. HOWEVER...VERTICAL WIND PROFILES
WITH LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
ACTIVITY TRAINING ENEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NERN TX ALONG MORE SWD ORIENTED
FRONT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. THE STORMS HAVE ACCESS TO RELATIVELY
MOIST INFLOW AIR WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AND ARE UNLIKELY TO BE
UNDERCUT ANYTIME SOON BY THE BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH. THESE STORMS
MAY POSE A RELATIVELY HIGHER END THREAT NEXT COUPLE HOURS FOR
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND AS THEY MOVE THROUGH REMAINING PARTS OF
NERN TX INTO NWRN LA OR SWRN AR.

..DIAL.. 03/19/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SHV...

34429127 32679422 32269531 33009493 34959240 37158806
37218714 36348758

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