[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041930
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-042100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CST TUE MAR 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL GA INTO FAR WRN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 96...

VALID 041930Z - 042100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 96 CONTINUES.

DUE TO WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE
INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN GRADUAL.  BUT...FRONTAL SQUALL LINE
EVOLUTION IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY...WITH STEADY FURTHER STRENGTHENING
LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD
OF INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IN THE PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING.

RUC GUIDANCE ALREADY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
CORE ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WHICH WILL DEVELOP TO THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  AND...VWP DATA FROM AREA
RADARS INDICATE 50+ KT SOUTHERLY FLOW BELOW 1000 FEET AGL.  EXTREME
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH
OF A 100 KT 500 MB JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR
TORNADOES.  MEANWHILE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL
DRYING TO ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS.  THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED VERY STRONG AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS WELL...ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH
21-22Z.

..KERR.. 03/04/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

32668489 33218453 33898432 34638429 35058424 35508418
35898416 36148390 36068309 34908257 34188245 33078286
32338461

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