[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041539
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041538
KYZ000-TNZ000-041745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0344
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN AND S CNTRL THRU ERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041538Z - 041745Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.  THE 1630Z OUTLOOK UPDATE WILL INCLUDE THIS
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

A SUB 1000 MB SURFACE CYCLONE CENTER IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
DEEPENING AS IT MIGRATES FROM NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...A FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY.

ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SURFACE CYCLONE IS STILL A BIT UNCLEAR...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST WEAK HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY POSITIVELY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER...EAST OF NASHVILLE
THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FAVORABLE
FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE EVOLUTION OF A NARROW SQUALL LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS....AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KT 500 MB
JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME.
AND...LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH...COUPLED WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR THE LOW/MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION
TO THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

..KERR.. 03/04/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

37038631 37638567 38158430 38408323 37888256 36908329
36318423 35868465 35428524 35378589 35928617



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