[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121810
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-121915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1339
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...TN/KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121810Z - 121915Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DMGG
WINDS...ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT EXTENDS THROUGH AL/MS AND NWD INTO
TN/KY HAS INITIATED CONVECTION RECENTLY IN A INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. CONVECTION ACROSS TN/KY LIES IN A RELATIVE WEAKNESS ON
THE PERIPHERY OF A BROADER RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH
HAS ALLOWED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING
 FROM BNA USING CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA GIVES 3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE
AND NEAR 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR...OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT PULSE
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS IN WET MICROBURSTS. STRONGER
UPDRAFTS MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO SMALL HAIL AS WELL. WEAK FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOMEWHAT ERRATIC DEVELOPMENT...WITH STORM
MERGERS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND TERRAIN BECOMING THE MAIN
INFLUENCES ON SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

..HURLBUT.. 06/12/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

35168709 34898887 35518942 36908841 37828701 37638595
36728515 35408649 35318675

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