[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 031044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031044
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-031315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0544 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN KY...EXTREME NWRN NC...EXTREME SERN
INDIANA...EXTREME NERN TN...EXTREME SWRN WV...EXTREME SWRN OH...FAR
WRN VA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031044Z - 031315Z

CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
PORTIONS ERN KY...WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NWD
TO EXTREME SERN INDIANA CLOSE TO OH RIVER.  BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SEWD ACROSS APPALACHIANS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS.

ACTIVITY IS GROWING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF PLUME OF WAA/MOIST
ADVECTION ABOVE SFC...ASSOCIATED WITH 20-30 KT SWLY FLOW AT 850 MB.
THIS PROCESS IS RESULTING IN ELEVATED BUOYANCY/DESTABILIZATION ATOP
NEAR-SFC TRAJECTORIES THAT WERE MODULATED BY CONVECTION DURING
PREVIOUS DAY.  MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND PLANAR 500 MB RUC
MESOSCALE PROGS INDICATE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION OVER LOWER OH
VALLEY...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT ATOP LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT.  ALTHOUGH CURRENT SPATIAL TREND IS FOR
BUOYANCY TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH EWD EXTENT INTO
APPALACHIANS...ELEVATED MUCAPE 500-800 J/KG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
ONGOING ACTIVITY RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN IT AS FAR SE AS EXTREME
WRN PORTIONS VA AND NC.  30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY AID IN
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION WITH MULTICELLULAR HAIL/GUSTS BEING MAIN
CONCERN.  ALTHOUGH STABLE LAYER NEAR GROUND WILL LIMIT DAMAGING GUST
THREAT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...POTENTIAL MAY EXIST IN NW-FACING SLOPES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHERE BEST EXPOSURE TO NWLY DOWNDRAFTS IS
LIKELY.  ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 06/03/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

35998241 36628365 37408460 37878588 38428588 39418469
38858336 38288247 37778180 36688109 36208114



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