[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021940
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-022045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...WRN KY...WEST TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021940Z - 022045Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AXIS.  WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN MO INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL...THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST TN.  AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS AXIS
HAS BECOME VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
AIRMASS IS UNCAPPED FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...AND LATEST RADAR
DATA SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM FROM
RIPLEY/BUTLER COUNTY MO INTO WEST TN.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.  EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS AND DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART.. 06/02/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...

37188985 36248763 35318721 34998859 36009096 37079109



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