[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010922
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-011115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0422 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MIDDLE-ERN TN...EXTREME WRN NC...NRN GA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 411...

VALID 010922Z - 011115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 411
CONTINUES.

SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED TSTMS -- DEVELOPING BEHIND LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DESCRIBED BELOW -- ARE CONSOLIDATING OVER BNA
REGION.  THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN NARROW PLUME OF ELEVATED
WAA/MOIST ADVECTION BEHIND INITIAL MCS DESCRIBED BELOW.  ISOLATED
HAIL AND STG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...AS ACTIVITY MOVES SEWD ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...THOUGH WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OF THIS ACTIVITY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY
500-800 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE IN THAT REGION...HOWEVER AVAILABLE
BUOYANCY APPEARS TO INCREASE SWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN.

INITIAL MCS -- MOVING SEWD ACROSS LARGE PART OF MIDDLE-ERN TN --
SHOULD CONTINUE SEWD FROM WW AREA ACROSS ADJOINING PORTIONS EXTREME
SERN TN...NRN GA AND FAR WRN NC.  ALTHOUGH SOME STG TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY BETWEEN
CHA-CSV...KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENTS DOWNSHEAR APPEAR
LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THAN WHICH PROMPTED WW ISSUANCE TO BEGIN
WITH.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AS WELL AS OVER RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE BOUNDARY
LAYER INDICATED IN SFC ANALYSES FROM FAR WRN NC INTO NRN GA.
ISOLATED GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THAT DO NOT QUITE MEET 50 KT SVR
CRITERIA -- BUT STILL CAPABLE OF MINOR DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER NWWD
FACING SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN.  HOWEVER...ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SVR
APPEARS LOW ENOUGH THAT ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 06/01/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...

34968579 35428719 35718768 36438715 36508669 36108511
35828395 35358366 34858392 34868508



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