[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 310034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310033
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-310200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1968
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN MO / FAR NWRN KY / SRN IL / FAR
SWRN IND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 776...

VALID 310033Z - 310200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 776 CONTINUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
A BRIEF TORNADO...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MO
/W OF CGI/ WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS FAR SRN
IL TO NEAR THE OH RIVER N OF OWB.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ALSO
ANALYZED FROM INTERSECTION WITH THE WARM FRONT NEAR CGI SEWD THROUGH
FAR WRN KY /W OF PAH/ TO NEAR BNA.  A BOUNDARY THEN STRETCHED WWD
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TO SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SW OF
UMN.

TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING ALONG AND JUST N
OF PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM E OF SGF EWD TO MDH.  INSPECTION OF
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SUGGEST THAT A
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER
LOCATED W OF STL MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.  00Z SGF SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PW VALUES AOA 2.3 INCHES AND MLCAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG.

CURRENT PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP DATA AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT A WEAK SWLY LLJ WILL PERSIST TONIGHT OVER THE SRN
OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OH VALLEY WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN AN INFLUX
OF THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR INTO GROWING TSTM COMPLEX.  AS
SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED...DAMAGING WET
MICROBURSTS AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL /HOURLY RATES APPROACHING
2-2.5 INCHES/ DUE TO CELL TRAINING AND/OR MERGERS.  ALSO...A BRIEF
TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE OWING TO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY.

..MEAD.. 07/31/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

36509348 36969348 38319153 38809013 38698671 37578669
36598904 36388946 36308954 36449338



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