[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 301958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301957
VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-302130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...TN...SERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301957Z - 302130Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ONGOING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED. A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MESO LOW OVER SERN MO WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN KY. SFC DEWPOINTS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
EXTEND SEWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO NRN AL AND NRN GA. RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE VALUES ALONG THE MOIST AXIS HAVE RISEN TO ABOUT
2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...A CORRIDOR OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXISTS FROM AR EWD ACROSS TN INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. THIS
AREA WHERE INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MAXIMIZED
APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE. THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT WITH MULTICELL OR PULSE CONVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF AS CELLS
INTENSIFY OR LINE-SEGMENTS TEMPORARILY ORGANIZE. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR
WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 07/30/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

35398501 35268581 35478692 35918697 36328653 36968550
37588461 37828378 37668321 37358289 36628272 36218306
35628416

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