[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221655
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-221930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1855
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN KY...TN...NWRN AL...NRN MS...NERN
AR...MO BOOT-HEEL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221655Z - 221930Z

OVERALL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS FCST IN CORRIDOR FROM
E-CENTRAL KY SWWD ACROSS MID TN AND NRN MS THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON...INVOF SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DISSIPATED EARLY
MORNING MCS.  AS OF 16Z BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR BWG SWWD
ACROSS DAVIDSON/HARDEMAN COUNTIES TN ARCHING WWD OVER ERN AR THEN
NWWD TO VICINITY SGF.  THIS BOUNDARY WAS MOVING EWD ABOUT 30 KT
INVOF TN/KY BORDER...AND SWD 15-20 KT DOWN MS RIVER VALLEY.

TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG NERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY NEAR TN/KY
BORDER...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER N AND S ACROSS
MID TN AND S-CENTRAL/SERN KY AS FOREGOING AIR MASS
HEATS/DESTABILIZES...AND SBCINH WEAKENS.  FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7 DEG C/KM  -- EVIDENT IN REGIONAL RAOBS -- SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER DISCUSSION AREA BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY
IN SUPPORT OF SVR POTENTIAL.  SFC DEW POINTS MID/UPPER 60S F AND
CONTINUED SFC HEATING WILL BOOST MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG OVER
S-CENTRAL/SERN KS AND NRN MID TN...AND 2000-3000 J/KG PORTIONS NRN
AL/NRN MS WHERE EVEN STRONGER HEATING AND 70S DEW POINTS ARE COMMON.
 SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER SRN MID TN AND NRN AL WWD
ACROSS NRN MS AND ERN AR AS BOUNDARY DECELERATES AND HEATS
FURTHER...RESULTING IN EROSION OF STRONGER CAPPING CURRENTLY EVIDENT
IN THAT AREA.  ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BEHIND
BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN TN...NERN AR...AND BOOT-HEEL OF MO...WITH
POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR EPISODES OF MRGLLY SVR HAIL AND STG GUSTS FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS.  AFTER ABOUT 18Z...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SFC-BASED PARCELS BEHIND BOUNDARY AS WELL...AND THEREFORE INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS WITH MOST INTENSE CELLS.
WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS REGION WITH
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODES BEING DOMINANT.  ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
MAY BE PROVIDED ALOFT AHEAD OF WELL-DEFINED MCV MOVING EWD ACROSS
WRN KY.

..EDWARDS.. 07/22/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

36449103 36378934 36738765 37298649 37838533 37358400
36448439 35258626 34328799 34359049 35499242



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