[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 220948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220947
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-221115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1851
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 220947Z - 221115Z

THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WW ISSUANCE
MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN MO AND
SCNTRL IL WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED IN SCNTRL MO EXTENDING
SEWD TO NEAR THE CAPE GIRARDEAU AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG AND ON TOP OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN IL MOVES
SEWD ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE AT THE
LOW END FOR ROTATING STORMS...SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
ACROSS SRN MOA ND WRN KY WHERE RUC DATA INDICATE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE
FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE
MORE INTENSE CELLS. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IF A COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE AND MOVE SEWD INTO WRN KY
AFTER DAYBREAK AS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL SHORT-TERM MODELS.

..BROYLES.. 07/22/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

36538772 36518846 36528921 36579017 36659114 36809161
37139178 37799161 38369077 38118965 37818863 37648806
37508736 37408665 37218637 36858641 36648683 36558715



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