[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041729
WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-041930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1678
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...KY/TN/NORTHERN AL INTO WV/FAR WESTERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 041729Z - 041930Z

RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF KY/TN AND NORTHERN AL INTO WV/FAR WESTERN VA. GIVEN
EXPECTATIONS FOR A RELATIVELY ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
ALONG THE IND/KY BORDER...WITH QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. RELATIVELY THICK
CLOUD COVER EXISTS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE...BUT MORE
AGGRESSIVE HEATING IS OCCURRING FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS SOUTHERN KY INTO TN/NORTHERN AL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AMIDST TEMPERATURES
ALREADY INTO THE 80S F. WITH CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING AND MIDDLE
60S F DEWPOINTS IN MOST LOCALES...MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND UPPER COLD
POCKET /-10C AT 500 MB/ WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL UPSWING
IN DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WHERE
ADJUSTED 12Z RAOBS/RUC SOUNDINGS IMPLY AS MUCH AS 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MODEST WESTERLIES EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AROUND 25-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...STRONGEST
ACROSS KY INTO WV. NEVERTHELESS...SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE
OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...OWING TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR FOR MODEST COLD POOL ORGANIZATION/PROPAGATION. IN SPITE
OF POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...MARGINAL NATURE OF THE VERTICAL
SHEAR/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD HINDER SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL.

..GUYER.. 07/04/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

38318100 36368186 34708556 34608868 37228773 38168536

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