[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 101353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101352
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-101545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...WRN/CNTRL KY
INTO MD TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101352Z - 101545Z

A WARM FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS/WESTERN TENNESSEE...TO THE EAST OF SLOWLY DEEPENING CYCLONE
MIGRATING TOWARD THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  AND...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT...ON
THE NOSE OF A 40-60 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER CONFLUENCE THROUGH 16-17Z.  COOL/ STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.  BUT...AS CAPE
FOR MOIST PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION INCREASES TO
500-1000 J/KG...WEAK TO MODERATE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL.

..KERR.. 01/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

37799033 38498971 38668771 37988633 37238552 36398548
35858562 35678656 35968741 36268864 36538949 36749011



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