[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 090332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090332
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-090430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0932 PM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NERN THROUGH SW AL...SERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 9...

VALID 090332Z - 090430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 11 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR MOST STORMS
TO UNDERGO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY
PERSIST EAST OF WW 11. HOWEVER...OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST THREAT MAY
NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW.

PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES FROM EAST OF NASHVILLE TN TO
NEAR BIRMINGHAM AL...THEN SWWD TO NEAR MAGNOLIA IN SRN MS. CAPE IS
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH ERN EXTENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS
WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER. THE
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT...AND IN GENERAL STORMS HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN LESS
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...VWP DATA INDICATE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG WITH LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
DEEP SHEAR FROM 50 TO 60 KT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE INCLUDING
BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH TIME THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH
VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

..DIAL.. 01/09/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...

31868782 31128902 31159002 31878925 32598824 33828717
35188644 36488579 36348466 34818527 32928658

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