[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 130110
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130109
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-130645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH...CENTRAL KY...WRN/MIDDLE TN...FAR NERN
MS/NWRN AL

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 130109Z - 130645Z

COLD RAIN WILL CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN SLEET THROUGH
06Z ACROSS SRN OH...CENTRAL KY...WRN/MIDDLE TN SWD INTO FAR NERN
MS/NWRN AL. HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES UP TO 0.05 IN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KY/MIDDLE TN.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR CMH SWD INTO MIDDLE TN/NCENTRAL AL. RELATIVELY
SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS COLD FRONT /PER THE 00Z BNA SOUNDING/
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WAS AIDING
IN SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM SWRN OH INTO SWRN TN. STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION SUPPORTED INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT IN THE MID
LEVELS WAS SUPPORTING RENEWED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS OVER WRN KY/NWRN TN AND SERN IND AS
PRECIPITATION SEEDING OCCURS INTO THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD INTO SRN
OH...CENTRAL KY/MIDDLE TN AND FAR NERN MS/NWRN AL. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
/JUXTAPOSED WITH MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT SUSTAINING THE ELEVATED
WARM LAYER/ WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 06Z. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION RATES /UP TO
0.05 IN/HR/ ARE EXPECTED OVER MIDDLE TN/CENTRAL KY WHERE STRONGEST
DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL EXIST /REGION LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE ERN GREAT LAKES UPPER JET/.

..CROSBIE.. 02/13/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

39778406 37988578 36558731 35528832 34698896 34688767
34738696 35878577 37098436 38568289 39668297 39868353

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