[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121254
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-121700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...OH VALLEY

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 121254Z - 121700Z

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND THEN
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY.  HOURLY PRECIPITATION
RATES APPROACHING .10-.25 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY...WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION FROM NEAR SDF
ENEWD ACROSS SRN OH AND NERN KY...PERHAPS INTO WRN WV.

REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE A WELL
ESTABLISHED WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM ERN TX/THE ARKLATEX NEWD INTO
THE OH VALLEY WITH A 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ MAINTAINING CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION.  THIS SAME REGIME IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...EVEN INTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACH OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  THE
OVERALL ORIENTATION OF LARGE-SCALE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL WITH TIME AS SURFACE-850 MB LOWS
DEEPEN WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER.

AS OF 12Z...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
THE MOST INTENSE FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING FROM SDF TO LEX NWD TO THE
OH RIVER S OF LUK.  STRENGTHENING WAA ALONG NOSE OF LLJ AND AHEAD OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL NEWD SHIFT OF THESE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES INTO SRN OH.  AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A
CHANGE OVER FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN OVER CNTRL/SRN OH.
FARTHER TO THE SW...BOUNDARY LAYER WAA MAY SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO
RAIN AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS NRN KY.

FINALLY...ACROSS NERN AR...WRN TN INTO WRN KY...BOUNDARY LAYER CAA
IN WAKE OF STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL EWD
PROGRESSION IN FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING ALONG WRN FRINGES OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD CURRENTLY FROM NW OF ARG-POF-MDH.

..MEAD.. 02/12/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...MEG...

38018824 39218582 40328366 40828195 40928034 40578028
40108018 39598054 38358142 37938366 37828589 37108770
35648969 36109021 36858988



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