[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 060319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060319
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-060445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...IND...KY...OH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 39...

VALID 060319Z - 060445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 39 CONTINUES.

ADDITIONAL WWS MAY BE NEEDED EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT.

AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG HIGH
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  INTENSE LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVITY IS ADVANCING
AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL WAVE...ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING /60-70
KT/ SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CORE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BETWEEN
03-06Z.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
WITH THE SQUALL LINE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE LOUISVILLE AND
CINCINNATI METROPOLITAN AREAS.

EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT TORNADOES WITHIN LINE...BUT THE
CLUSTER OF MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER
REGIME...EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET CORE...APPEARS LIKELY
TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN INTO THE FRANKFORT/LEXINGTON
AREAS.  AND...CONTINUED WARMING/MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO THE BLUE GRASS IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

..KERR.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

36878842 38008700 39078591 39548536 39828485 40508418
40658216 39698056 37768247 36618375 36028611 35998770

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