[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 060100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060059
TNZ000-KYZ000-060230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 37...

VALID 060059Z - 060230Z

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN.


TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF DAMAGE PERSIST OVER WRN TN AND
NRN MS. THESE CELLS ARE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NE AT OVER 50 MPH AND
WILL MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN.

SOMEWHAT LESS UNSTABLE AIR CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER MIDDLE TN AND
POINTS E...WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S OVER
ERN TN/NRN GA. HOWEVER...A VERY STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NEWD OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 00Z
BNA SOUNDING SHOWS A SMALL CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 644 MB BUT WHEN
MODIFIED FOR SURFACE OBS UPSTREAM THE PARCELS ARE UNCAPPED.
FURTHER...WIND SHEAR IS EXTREME...WITH HPX VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATING 0-1 SRH OVER 600 M2/S2. GIVEN THESE LEVELS OF
SHEAR...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW STORMS MOVING INTO
MIDDLE TN TO REMAIN SEVERE...WITH TORNADO AND HAIL THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

36668800 36608653 36118653 35058657 35068681 35058710
35038805

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