[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 050322
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050321
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-050445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0144
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0921 PM CST MON FEB 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE MO...SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 050321Z - 050445Z

TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

TO THIS POINT...THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS REMAINED
FOCUSED ON THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CONFLUENCE ZONE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR...LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
AMPLITUDE POLAR IMPULSE NOW LIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT MAY BE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS.  AND...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
INDICATES A MOISTENING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOW IN THE PROCESS
OF SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF ARKANSAS... DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS TEXAS.  THUS...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
NOW AND 06Z.

IF THIS OCCURS...AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ATOP A DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT CAPE
FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PRESENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR DOWNDRAFTS REACHING THE SURFACE...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

36529242 37119231 37529182 38289050 38678964 38488773
37218717 36428912 36099054 36069182



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