[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 272146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272146
INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-272315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2540
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL IND SWWD INTO NERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 962...964...965...

VALID 272146Z - 272315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
962...964...965...CONTINUES.

BOW ECHO NW OF KHUF ON THE IND/IL BORDER APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS
IT BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE STRONGER BUOYANCY AXIS LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER
THE LWR OH/MID-MS VLY.  THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH A VERY SHORT-TERM THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS/SMALL HAIL
INTO WCNTRL IND THROUGH ABOUT 23Z.

OTHERWISE...FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TSTM LINE FROM SRN IL INTO SE
MO HAS SLOWED...RESULTING IN A SEGMENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
BECOMING ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE UPR FLOW REGIME.  THE
CORRIDOR FROM SPARTA-PARIS IL COULD SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF TRAINING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  THERE COULD STILL BE A BRIEF ISOLD
TORNADO/DMGG WIND GUST WITH THE MORE N-S ORIENTED LINE SEGMENT THAT
WILL PROGRESS ENE THROUGH EXTREME SERN MO AND SCNTRL IL.

TSTMS HAVE PULSED TO SVR LIMITS OCCASIONALLY ACROSS AR THIS
AFTN...BUT HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO OVERCOME THE VERY STRONG SHEAR.
HERE...LARGER SCALE SUPPORT HAS BEEN COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN
FARTHER N...SO DESPITE THE STRONG CDFNT CIRCULATION AND PRESENCE OF
STRONG SHEAR...UPDRAFTS HAVE NOT BEEN SUSTAINED VERY LONG.  BUT...A
CONTINUED BRIEF SVR THREAT CONSISTING OF DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE STORMS CONTINUE EWD TOWARD
THE MS RVR.

..RACY.. 12/27/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   34649226 37549077 40278760 40248664 39088720 36898888
            34579127 34649226



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net