[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 241306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241306
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-241530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2514
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 AM CST WED DEC 24 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...NERN LA...NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241306Z - 241530Z

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH A THREAT OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
TORNADO. THE MAIN THREAT WILL EXIST PRIOR TO 18Z...OVER ERN AR AND
NW MS.

SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL AR INTO NW LA. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ALONG THIS FRONT AS WELL AS NEAR A
BROAD/DIFFUSE WARM FRONT ACROSS E CNTRL AR INTO NWRN MS. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NEWD...NEUTRAL HEIGHT CHANGES ARE FORECAST BUT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MINIMAL DESTABILIZATION MAY BE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
MORNING.

MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM LCH AS WELL AS TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INVERSION AROUND 800 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SWD EXTEND OF ANY
VIGOROUS CONVECTION. THE 12Z SHV AND LZK SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLER
PROFILES ALOFT...THAT WHEN MODIFIED FOR CURRENT WARM SECTOR
CONDITIONS...YIELD MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG. COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT SUGGEST
BUOYANT SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN.
HOWEVER...A FEW MORE HOURS OF A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING
63-65 F DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS NW MS/SW TN...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST OR A BRIEF...AND LIKELY
WEAK...TORNADO.

..JEWELL.. 12/24/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32539103 32089210 31619362 31929388 32899318 34599203
            35099112 35889005 35938952 35658921 35128904 34538926
            33169000 32859038 32539103



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