[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 161129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161128
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-161530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2475
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AREA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 161128Z - 161530Z

MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THIS
MORNING OVER PARTS OF NRN TN...MUCH OF KY INTO SRN IL...SRN IND AND
SRN OH. PRECIPITATION FROM NRN TN INTO SRN KY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FARTHER NORTH...MOSTLY SNOW OR A MIX OF
SNOW AND SLEET WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS
MORNING. FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL INITIALLY BE FROM .01 TO .05
INCHES PER HOUR...BUT RATES MAY INCREASE LATER TODAY.

EARLY THIS MORNING AN 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC AREA SWWD THROUGH TN AND AR. BROAD SWLY FLOW REGIME EXISTS
OVER THE REGION WITH EMBEDDED WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING NE. VWP DATA
FROM NASHVILLE SHOW 20-30 KT SWLY FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC
ZONE WITH IMPLIED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS AREA OF
ASCENT IS SUPPORTING THE ONGOING ZONE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM
NERN AR THROUGH WRN WV. THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...MOST LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO AGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET THAT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN
MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER...LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RATES
BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ABOVE THE SUBZERO
SURFACE LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SNOW GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LATER THIS MORNING
OVER SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY.

..DIAL.. 12/16/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   39298218 38508180 37118492 36508714 36268961 36878988
            37748889 38568530 39298218

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