[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 022226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022226
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-030000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2000
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT SAT AUG 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SC/NC.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 792...795...

VALID 022226Z - 030000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
792...795...CONTINUES.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS WW 792 AND ERN
PORTIONS NEW WW 795 ACROSS CAROLINAS...WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE OVER AREAS FARTHER SE IN LOWER PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.
MULTICELLULAR HAIL/DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...THEREFORE ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS TWO PRIMARY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES --
MAIN ONE BEING OVER APPALACHIANS/FOOTHILLS FROM GSO SWWD BETWEEN
CHA-ATL...AND SMALLER/SHORTER BOUNDARY FROM WARREN COUNTY NC SWWD
ACROSS LANCASTER COUNTY SC.  SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
LATTER BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD WITH AID FROM
OUTFLOW PRODUCED BY CONVECTION THEREWITH.  PRECONVECTIVE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN WARM AND WELL-MIXED FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS...WITH SFC TEMPS GENERALLY 90S AND DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM
MID 60S IN WRN CAROLINAS TO 70S COASTAL PLAIN.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG...ATOP VERY
STEEP SUBCLOUD LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING STG-SVR GUST THREAT.  BUOYANCY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT OUTSIDE OUTFLOW AREAS THROUGH ABOUT
01Z...AS DECREASE IN TEMPS IS OFFSET BY INCREASING SFC DEW POINTS IN
AREAS OF PRIOR STG MIXING.  DURING EVENING...EXPECT CONTINUED SFC
COOLING TO BEGIN LOWERING BUOYANCY AND DIMINISHING POTENTIAL
UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT VIGOR...WITH SVR THREAT SLOWLY BECOMING MORE
ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL.  WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LACK OF MORE ROBUST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER THIS REGION SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT
MULTICELL MODE...WITH SOME CLUSTERING AND AMALGAMATED COLD POOLS
POSSIBLY ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL CONCENTRATIONS OF DAMAGING
WIND.

..EDWARDS.. 08/02/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...

33538197 34638274 35748299 36518155 36477857 35557774
34617778 34137843 33807900 33547989 33168116

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net