[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221716
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-OKZ000-221845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN MO/MUCH OF AR/FAR WESTERN TN/EASTERN
OK/MO BOOTHEEL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213...214...

VALID 221716Z - 221845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
213...214...CONTINUES.

REMAINING PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 213 CONTINUES UNTIL 18Z AND
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 214 CONTINUES UNTIL 22Z -- PRIMARY RISKS ARE
SEVERE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AN 18Z SCHEDULED
EXPIRATION...PORTIONS OF WW 213 MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED /OR
PERHAPS REPLACED WITH A NEW WATCH/ WITHIN THE HOUR.

STRONG/SEVERE LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO CONGLOMERATE/ORGANIZE ACROSS
NORTHERN AR INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MO/FAR WESTERN TN...ROUGHLY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR DYERSBURGH TN TO BLYTHEVILLE/BATESVILLE AR TO
SOUTH OF THE FAYETTEVILLE/HARRISON AR AREAS AS OF 17Z. AMPLE
INSOLATION AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S F SUGGEST THE AMBIENT WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IS ALREADY
UNCAPPED...WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE PER
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. EVEN WITH MODEST LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW...THE STRONG INSTABILITY/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVOLVING MCS COLD POOL WILL SUPPORT A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPREAD OF THE
STRONG-SEVERE MCS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AR AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TN/NORTHWEST MS THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE ORGANIZING MCS...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL MO INTO NORTHERN AR ATOP THE RESIDUAL COOL OUTFLOW...WITH
THE PRIMARY RISK BEING LARGE HAIL FROM THESE ELEVATED STORMS. THESE
POST-MCS ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AR AND/OR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST OK MAY
WARRANT A LOCAL EXTENSION OR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH PRIOR TO 18Z.

..GUYER.. 04/22/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

36369012 35968908 34529006 34009302 34359465 35339552
36419490 36809232 36239083



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