[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111627
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111626
KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-111830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SERN KY...AND EXTREME SERN INDIANA
ADJACENT TO OH RIVER.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111626Z - 111830Z

SVR POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN KY WHERE
STRONGEST/LONGEST-LASTING SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED.

SFC MESOANALYSIS AND REFLECTIVITY TRENDS AS OF 1545Z INDICATE
PRIMARY PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE BAND -- ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH LINE OF
STG-SVR TSTMS IN MS AND ERN/MID TN -- EXTENDS NNEWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL
KY 25-30 NM W OF FTK-BWG LINE.  THIS BOUNDARY IS TRANSLATING EWD
15-20 KT.  OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY -- RESULTING
FROM EARLIER CLOUD/PRECIP AREA NOW EJECTING NEWD FROM NRN KY ACROSS
OH -- IS ANALYZED NEAR LINE FROM HTS-JKL-LOZ WWD JUST N OF TN
BORDER...BECOMING DIFFUSE NEAR BWG.  SVR THREAT PRIMARILY WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND E OF CONVERGENCE BAND AND ALONG AND S OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY -- WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...LIFT AND SHEAR
WILL BE GREATER THAN IN AREAS FARTHER W AND N.  PRIND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL TRANSLATE/MIX NWD ACROSS KY AMIDST CLOUD BREAKS THAT
WILL PERMIT INCREASING SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...IN TURN
FOSTERING NWD EXPANSION OF SFC BASED SVR POTENTIAL WITH TIME --
INCLUDING WIND/TORNADO THREAT AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.  LOW LEVEL
SRH/VORTICITY SHOULD REMAIN MAXIMIZED INVOF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...TAPERING ONLY SLIGHTLY SWD INTO NRN MIDDLE TN WHERE
ROTATING TSTMS ALREADY ARE OBSERVED.  SVR POTENTIAL FARTHER N NEAR
OH RIVER IS MORE CONDITIONAL..WITH ELEVATED INFLOW PARCELS AND
PREDOMINANT THREAT BEING MRGL HAIL NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  DESPITE
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SFC AIR MASS RECOVERY IS MORE UNCERTAIN
BENEATH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND WELL N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

..EDWARDS.. 04/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

36648749 37538673 38278620 39838546 39368393 38058377
36908396 36598454



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