[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 101841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101841
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-102045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN AR...SRN IL...WRN TN...SERN
MO...EXTREME NWRN MS...WRN KY.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 189...190...

VALID 101841Z - 102045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 189...190...CONTINUES.

SUPERCELL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN CORRIDOR
FROM SERN/E-CENTRAL AR NNEWD ACROSS MO BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WRN KY
REGION.  POTENTIAL ALSO MAY TRANSLATE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MS RIVER
INTO WRN TN AND EXTREME NWRN MS WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS.  IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE AS ANTICIPATED...ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED DURING
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...TO COVER AREAS E OF WWS 189-190.

AS CENTRAL PLAINS LOW EJECTS NNEWD...STRONGEST SFC ISALLOBARIC
FORCING LIKEWISE IS SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS CORN BELT FROM NEB-IL.
ASSOCIATED VEERING OF SFC WINDS OVER LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REDUCE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE
SRH OR MITIGATE SUPERCELL HAZARD.  0-1 KM SRH AOA 500 J/KG -- NOW
INDICATED IN VWP DATA AND RUC HODOGRAPHS -- SHOULD PERSIST OVER
REGION ACCORDINGLY.  CONTRIBUTING EFFECT OF VEERING IS MOISTURE
ADVECTION NNEWD AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND.  CONTINUING STG
SFC HEATING IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW LAYER -- ACROSS LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY -- WILL COMBINE WITH MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS TO YIELD
MLCAPES LOCALLY NEAR 1500 J/KG.  THIS BUOYANCY WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER THAN INDICATED BY UNMODIFIED RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT ARE FAR
TOO COOL WITH SFC TEMPS.  MEANWHILE...CINH HAS BECOME MINIMAL OVER
MOST OF ERN AR...AND SHOULD ERODE GRADUALLY EWD INTO WRN TN.  SUCH
LARGE BUOYANCY/SHEAR COMBINATIONS...AND PROBABILITY OF RELATIVELY
DISCRETE STORMS -- INDICATE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING NOT JUST FOR
TORNADOES BUT FOR A FEW TO BECOME SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING...GIVEN
SUSTAINED/CYCLIC SUPERCELLS.

..EDWARDS.. 04/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

33109311 34229232 35439157 37079045 37608931 37668778
36078847 34059074 32929157 32379240 32089371



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