[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 101552
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101551
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-101715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NE TX...NRN LA...SRN/ERN/CENTRAL
AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 187...189...190...

VALID 101551Z - 101715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
187...189...190...CONTINUES.

REMAINING PORTIONS WW 187 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 17Z OR
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...AS REMAINING CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF AREA
AND LOW LEVEL LIFT WEAKENS INVOF PREFRONTAL TROUGH.  HOWEVER...SVR
POTENTIAL NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL CONCENTRATE MORE TIGHTLY NE OF
THAT AREA ACROSS PORTIONS AR NOW COVERED BY WWS 189-190.
ACCORDINGLY...CURRENT PLAN IS TO MOVE CATEGORICAL MDT RISK NWD FROM
LA AND FOCUSED ON AREAS FROM SERN AR NNEWD TO LOWEST OH RIVER VALLEY
IN WWS 189-190.

AS DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OCCLUDES AND LIFTS NNEWD OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECT WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS ACTUALLY MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES WITH TIME OVER PORTIONS AR...BECAUSE OF TENDENCY AWAY FROM
STRONGLY FORCED/LINEAR ASCENT...IN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND VERY STG SHEAR.  THIS TENDENCY ALREADY IS EVIDENT
WITH POTENTIALLY TORNADIC TSTM CROSSING GRANT COUNTY AR AS OF
1550Z...WHICH MAY TRACK NEWD OVER SRN/ERN FRINGES LIT METRO AREA.
VWP/PROFILER TRENDS...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST
LARGE HODOGRAPHS -- CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1 KM SRH AOA 400 J/KG -- WILL
PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER AR AND EVEN AS FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY TO MORE
PURELY SLY DIRECTION.  RICHER MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES FROM GULF THAT
ACCOMPANY THIS VEERING ALSO WILL AID IN INCREASING BUOYANCY.  BKN
CLOUD COVER NOW EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF
ENHANCED SFC HEATING...COMBINING WITH MOIST ADVECTION TO YIELD
MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG AND TO WEAKEN REMAINING CINH.

..EDWARDS.. 04/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

32999365 34049293 35329201 37079045 37608931 37408838
36518927 34239076 32929157 31879383 31659448



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net