[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 090033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090033
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0590
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX...AR...SE MO...WRN TN...NW MS...NRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173...

VALID 090033Z - 090230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173
CONTINUES.

BUT...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.  AND...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

IN THE WAKE OF A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SCATTERED STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION THROUGH ARKANSAS.
THE STRONGEST STORMS REMAIN GENERALLY FOCUSED WEST THROUGH NORTH OF
EL DORADO...NEAR THE REMNANTS OF A PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE STRONGEST HEATING OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON.  BUT...SOME
RECENT INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED IN A BROKEN BAND OF FRONTAL
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED.  AND...BOUNDARY LAYER INFLOW INTO STORMS
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST APPEARS CHARACTERIZED BY ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY...EVEN PRIOR TO ONSET OF STRONGER SURFACE COOLING.  WITH
THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST...AHEAD
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...AND SUBSIDENT REGION
OF APPROACHING HIGH LEVEL JET LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF REGION
AFTER 02Z...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

..KERR.. 04/09/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...FWD...

33659516 34409393 35569288 36249219 36599111 36418971
35848931 34458979 33189099 32789163 32419307 32299471
32659593



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