[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041255
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-041500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST LA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL
INTO EASTERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161...162...

VALID 041255Z - 041500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
161...162...CONTINUES.

VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 161/162 CONTINUE UNTIL
16Z...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. SOUTH/EAST OF WATCHES 161/162...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED BY MID MORNING OR SO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
LA/CENTRAL MS INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL.

PRE-COLD FRONTAL STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TN/FAR NORTHWEST
AL AND NORTHERN MS TO NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE AR/LA BORDER AS OF
1245Z. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS REFLECT A GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MS. IT APPEARS LIKELY THE
EXISTING LINE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED THROUGH THE
MORNING OWING TO INSOLATION/HEATING...WHILE QUASI-DISCRETE
PRE-LINEAR DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AS WELL. 12Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM
SHREVEPORT LA REFLECTS ONLY A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. MODIFIED 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM SHREVEPORT/JACKSON/BIRMINGHAM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1000-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE IN A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN LA INTO CENTRAL AL BY MID/LATE
MORNING. GIVEN THE WEAK CAPPING AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 KT OR
GREATER WITH THE WARM SECTOR...SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL
BECOME A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE
CONVECTIVE LINE OTHERWISE POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL.

..GUYER.. 04/04/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

35888613 35458503 32578759 31649246 33089270 34258911

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