[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 190251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190251
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-190415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...CNTRL/NERN MS...NRN/CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 722...

VALID 190251Z - 190415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 722 CONTINUES.

VALID PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 722 EXPIRES AT 04Z.  A NEW TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE OF TSTMS TO
ENCOMPASS MOST OF MIDDLE TN SWD INTO PERHAPS CNTRL PORTIONS OF AL
AND ECNTRL MS.

SRN PORTIONS OF THE UPR TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPR GRTLKS REGION
CONTINUES TO EDGE EWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH WITH DARKENING NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SRN PLAINS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTMS FROM WRN TN SWWD INTO WCNTRL MS.  DOWNSTREAM
AIR MASS HAS MOISTENED THROUGH THE DAY AND SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL
EXIST FOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR STORMS.  PRIMARY SLY LLJ AXIS HAS
BEEN SHIFTING NWD INTO THE OH VLY THIS EVENING WHERE STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS.  BUT...BMX/HTX/BNA VWPS AND 00Z BNA SOUNDING
STILL EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL 0-1KM SHEAR ALONG WITH MORE THAN ENOUGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.  NUMBER OF STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A MORE LINEAR EVOLUTION...BUT THE
THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING
FRIDAY DOWNSTREAM INTO MIDDLE TN AND NRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL.
IN FACT...IMPROVING VERTICAL SHEAR /OWING TO APPROACH OF THE SRN
PLAINS JET STREAK/ MAY LEAD TO CELLS BECOMING MORE DISCRETE IN
NATURE WITH TIME.  THUS...AT LEAST AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT WILL
CONTINUE ALONG WITH RISKS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS.  AS SUCH...A NEW WW
WILL BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM SHORTLY.

..RACY.. 10/19/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

33398990 36528727 36498522 32898633 32778911

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