[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 190051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190051
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...LWR OH VLY AND MID-SOUTH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 722...

VALID 190051Z - 190215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 722 CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG AND/OR LONG
TRACKED...WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM SRN
IND SWD INTO CNTRL/WRN KY...MIDDLE/WRN TN AND EXTREME NRN MS.

NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS...A FEW EXHIBITING SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION...CONTINUE FROM WEST OF KSDF SWWD TO JUST E OF THE MS RVR
IN NWRN MS AT 0030Z.  DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
OWING TO INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH 00Z BNA SOUNDING
EXHIBITING ABOUT 1700 J/KG OF MLCAPE.  VWPS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW
TREMENDOUS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND 50+ KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...ALL
INDICATIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES OVER A
VERY LARGE REAL ESTATE CENTERED ON THE LWR OH VLY/MIDWEST INTO THE
MID-SOUTH.

THROUGH LATE EVENING...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST
ACROSS MIDDLE/WRN TN NWD INTO IND WHERE MODELS FCST AN ACCELERATION
OF THE SLY LLJ IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS BENEATH 95+ KTS OF MID-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW.  EVENTUALLY...THE NUMBER OF STORMS MAY BEGIN TO MODULATE STORM
MODE SOMEWHAT AS CELLS BEGIN TO MERGE.  BUT...SUCH STRONG AMBIENT
SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS WITH
POSSIBLE TORNADOES AND HIGH WINDS.

..RACY.. 10/19/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...BMX...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...

38448905 39018683 38778555 38218494 37198542 35278667
33988727 32848787 33058874 33329001 33679075

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