[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 182239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182239
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-182345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0539 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...LWR OH VLY SWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 722...

VALID 182239Z - 182345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 722 CONTINUES.

WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 722...THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE ACROSS EXTREME SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN
IND...NWRN KY AND PARTS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN.

DISCRETE AND POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE BOTH
ALONG A DRYLINE FROM SRN IL SWD INTO EXTREME SERN MO AND FARTHER E
ALONG SUBTLE CONFLUENCE LINES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...STRADDLING
THE OH/KY BORDER.  ONE PARTICULAR SUPERCELL WITH SIGNIFICANT
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL APPROACH THE WRN PARTS OF
THE LOUISVILLE METRO AREA BY 23Z.  UPSTREAM... OTHER SUPERCELLS WILL
MOVE NEWD ALONG THE OH RVR ACROSS SRN IND/NWRN KY.  LOUISVILLE VWP
DERIVED HODOGRAPH FOR OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS SHOWS AROUND 175 M2/S2
0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY WITH STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR.  NRN EDGE OF
68+ DEG F SFC DEW POINTS WERE MOVING NWD INTO THIS REGION AS
WELL...LOWERING LCLS AND CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
TORNADOES.

FARTHER S...RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LIKELY STABILIZED PARTS
OF THE MS AND AL PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO WATCH...NAMELY AROUND CBM
AND AREAS SW OF KTCL.  ONE PERSISTENT CELL APPROACHING KTCL SHOULD
BEGIN INGESTING THIS COOLER AIR WITH A SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING SOON.

THROUGH MID-EVENING...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE AS IT MOVES E OF THE MS RVR AND COULD DEVELOP SWD INTO NWRN
MS/WRN TN.  NUMBER OF STORMS DEVELOPING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLUTION
INTO LINEAR BANDS OF STORMS...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
THUS...DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ALONG WITH THE
TORNADO THREAT.  GIVEN TRANSLATION OF THE LLJ MAXIMUM NWD WITH TIME
INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VLY...HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE CONFINED TO NRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE WW THROUGH MID-EVENING.

..RACY.. 10/18/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

36928990 38218872 38498533 37398515 35668647 33758746
33158787 33208878 33678993 35269046 36559000



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