[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181526
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181526
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-181730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN MS/NW AL THRU WRN AND MIDDLE
TN...WRN/CNTRL KY INTO SRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181526Z - 181730Z

TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR MORE WATCHES...PERHAPS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW PIVOTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION HAS BEEN WEAKENED
ABOVE A MOISTENING PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENT SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME TO
THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CYCLONE.  MID-LEVELS ALREADY
APPEAR TO BE WARMING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INHIBITION MAY REMAIN FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE
ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  AND...A ZONE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/ LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY RAPIDLY APPROACHING THIS
REGION.  ADDITIONALLY... BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER LIKELY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW HEATING OF A BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS.

THUS...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT THE RISK FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
BOUNDARY BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
18-21Z TIME FRAME.  AS THIS OCCURS...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE
CORRESPONDINGLY WITHIN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...BETWEEN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET
AXES.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY ONLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
CLOCKWISE TURNING WITH HEIGHT...HODOGRAPHS BENEATH 30-40 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG.

..KERR.. 10/18/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

33169092 34599057 35259010 36418932 37258857 38028741
38788525 38578427 37328462 35308617 33778765 33088918

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