[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 180356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180356
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-180500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MO/AR/SRN IL/WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 713...714...

VALID 180356Z - 180500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 713...714...CONTINUES.

NEW WW/S WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF MO AND AR EXTENDING INTO SRN
IL/ WRN KY AS ONGOING AND NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ACROSS MO/AR
AND SPREADS ENEWD OVERNIGHT.  THESE NEW WW/S WILL LIKELY REPLACE ALL
OR PARTS OF WW/S 713 AND 714.

STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
REGIONS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS WITH LOW LCLS EXTENDING NWD
INTO MO/IL/ WRN KY.  STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD E TOWARD THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AS BASE OF NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 80-90 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAIN DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH ATTENDANT
TORNADO THREAT.

ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A SQUALL LINE ACROSS CENTRAL MO
INTO NWRN AR...WITH RECENT STRONG WIND GUST REPORTS IN SWRN
MO...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT WITH ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SQUALL LINE.  FARTHER
S...DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..PETERS.. 10/18/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...

33159235 33139378 33589417 34139433 35249457 37589330
39379303 40359209 40059039 39428887 38618812 37118771
36538789 36398933 34059075 33319171



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net