[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 150036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150036
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-150200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2145
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST WED NOV 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN / NRN AL / PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 733...

VALID 150036Z - 150200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 733
CONTINUES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z.  AN
ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN KY SWWD
THROUGH SRN MIDDLE TN...NRN MS INTO FAR SRN AR.  00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS
OF 60-63 F/ COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
/MLCAPES OF 300-700 J PER KG/...DESPITE RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.  MOREOVER...THESE DATA ALONG WITH AREA PROFILERS AND VWPS
SHOW LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. STRAIGHT LINE
HODOGRAPHS/ WITH 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WHICH HAS
SUPPORTED SOME OBSERVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

ONGOING TSTMS WITHIN IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OWING TO INCREASED HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.  HOWEVER...
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER 01-02Z AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN.

..MEAD.. 11/15/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

32859054 33199085 33639047 34158839 34958708 35648607
35998563 36118493 35758460 34348628 33118838 32918885

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