[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 152158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152158
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-152300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0810
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...WRN KY...SERN MO...WRN TN...NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152158Z - 152300Z

SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.  A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM MVN-JBR-LIT.  THESE STORMS ARE ALONG
PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS REGION.  REGIONAL VAD
PROFILES SUGGEST SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
STORMS AND A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF FRONT ALONG AN AXIS FROM
PAH-MEM.  THESE STORMS LIKELY DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN
REGION OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING...AND HAVE RESULTED IN WELL-DEFINED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGING WESTWARD.  PRIMARY SQUALL LINE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MERGE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO OVER SRN IL/SERN
MO/NERN AR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOCAL INTENSIFICATION OF
STORMS.  AFTERWARDS...STORMS WILL BE INGESTING MORE STABLE AIR AND
WILL LIKELY SLOWLY WEAKEN.  LIKEWISE...EASTERN CONVECTION OVER WRN
KY/ERN TN WILL POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS...BUT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS ALSO ANTICIPATED
HERE AS OUTFLOW SURGE AWAY FROM ACTIVE STORMS.  RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND REPEAT ACTIVITY SUGGEST THE RISK OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THESE AREAS.

..HART.. 05/15/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...

34998895 34999025 35029120 35369132 36319041 37558967
38408889 38898827 38918748 38548715 38058719 37528744
37148759 36348788 35608827

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