[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041927
KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-042100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0684
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 041927Z - 042100Z

MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN
TN. A WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES UPPER LOW TRANSITIONING NORTHEASTWARD
NEAR THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONFLUENCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
/GENERALLY LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND AMPLE HEATING HAS
ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO BECOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF KY/TN. RUC SOUNDINGS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE MODIFIED 12Z
NASHVILLE RAOB SUGGESTS 750-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IS PRESENT IN THE
AMBIENT WARM SECTOR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN. BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...WITH HAIL POSSIBLE
AS WELL. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SHEAR 30
KTS OR LESS/ AND LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE FOCUS SUGGEST THE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...SUCH THAT A WATCH WILL NOT BE
NEEDED.

..GUYER.. 05/04/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

38368467 38168319 37798270 37298261 36288298 35108428
35178529 35868603 36988612 38118572

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