[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 281650
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281650
VAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-281815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0357
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN WV...WRN VA...ERN TN...WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281650Z - 281815Z

CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS UNDERWAY ALONG THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING
AND HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID/UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW
POINTS.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG AND...WITH ADDITIONAL
INSOLATION...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKENING APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROBABLY ENHANCE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WEAK...
WITHIN WEAKNESS IN LOW-LEVEL RIDGING.  WHILE THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BE SUPPORTIVE
OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS...AND RISK OF LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS MAY
INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGH 20-21Z.

..KERR.. 03/28/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

37668192 38438068 39788023 39427902 38447908 36998048
36308115 35608205 35138316 35348401 35948454 36478339



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