[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011633
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-011830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...NERN LA...MS...MIDDLE AND WRN TN...AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 43...44...

VALID 011633Z - 011830Z

THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES OVER REMAINING PARTS OF WW 43 AND 44
WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR A FEW LONG TRACK STRONG TORNADOES NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF MS...SRN AL AND NWRN AL. TORNADO THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD INTO WRN AND MIDDLE TN.

LATE THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME
SRN IA SWD THROUGH WRN IL...ERN AR...NWRN LA AND SERN TX. RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE ADVECTING
NWD ALONG A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS N CNTRL MS. AXIS OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY EXTENDS FROM ERN LA THROUGH MUCH OF MS...SWRN TN AND WRN
AL WITH MLCAPE 500 TO 1000 J/KG. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO NWD DESTABILIZATION INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH TIME.

WEAK CAP AND A DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET EXIT
REGION WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 15Z RAOB FROM
JACKSON MS SHOWS MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AND VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CONTAINING
LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. STORMS CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO SWRN MS WILL
POSE A THEAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES AS THEY MOVE ENEWD THROUGH THE WRM
SECTOR OF SRN AND CNTRL MS NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD THROUGH NERN MS AND
EXTREME NWRN AL...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO WRN AND MIDDLE TN.

..DIAL.. 03/01/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

33538787 31318894 31159095 32709127 35288805 35018710

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