[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011018
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-011215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0418 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...WRN KY/TN...NRN MS/AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 40...

VALID 011018Z - 011215Z

NUMEROUS STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
PARTS OF WATCH 40 THIS MORNING. GREATER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAY
REMAIN ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA.

EARLIER ERUPTION OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND
INTO WRN KY/TN APPEARED TO BE TIED TO STRONG ASCENT BENEATH LEFT
EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. THIS FORCING...IN CONCERT WITH LOW LEVEL
INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...WAS SUFFICIENT TO FORCE
WIDESPREAD STORMS TO DEVELOP ABOVE SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS SPREAD AWAY FROM MORE INTENSE LOW LEVEL
MOIST INFLOW AND WAS LIKELY BEING SUSTAINED BY LARGE SCALE FORCING
IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE REGIME ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.
MEANWHILE...WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE INTENSE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE
OVER THE PLAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STORMS TAKING ROOT ACROSS SRN
PARTS OF THE WATCH WILL CONTINUE TO POSE SOME THREAT FOR MARGINAL
HAIL GIVEN PROXIMITY TO GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/STRENGTHENING SHEAR AHEAD OF THE PLAINS
SYSTEM.

..CARBIN.. 03/01/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

37918856 37868684 36688701 36608620 35028687 33728837
33799052 34049080 37618885



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