[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231855
TNZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-KYZ000-232100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL/SERN KY...MIDDLE/ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231855Z - 232100Z

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS S CNTRL/SERN
KY AND MIDDLE/ERN TN WITHIN REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MODEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.  WW NOT EXPECTED.

CLEAR SKIES HAVE PROMOTED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION NEAR A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN KY
INTO ERN TN.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 COUPLED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION.  WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 20-25
KT ARE LIMITING VERTICAL SHEAR TO LESS THAN 15-20 KT IN THE LOWEST 6
KM SUGGESTING PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS ARE NOT LIKELY.  HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AROUND 25F AND INVERTED-V SOUNDING
STRUCTURE BELOW ~800 MB ARE CONTRIBUTING TO DCAPE OF 800-1000
J/KG...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AS CELLS
DEVELOP AND WEAKEN.  WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF HAIL SIZES ALTHOUGH STRONGER CELLS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..WEISS.. 06/23/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

35038581 35078722 35698755 36348741 36958630 37218563
37068412 36578331 36138288 35588349 35038465



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