[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141624
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141624
WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-141830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SWRN PA,...SERN OH...MUCH OF WV...ERN KY/ERN TN
AND FAR SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141624Z - 141830Z

APPROACHING UPPER VORT COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND WRN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS BY 18Z.
GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...SEVERAL ORGANIZED SWD MOVING CLUSTERS OF SVR TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AND A WW IS EXPECTED BY 18Z.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER WRN WV ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM SW-NE FROM CENTRAL KY INTO SWRN PA. AN
AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER SERN OH/WRN WV HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
SWWD MOVING UPPER VORT CENTERED OVER SWRN PA.  GIVEN INCREASING
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES ABOVE 1500 J/KG/ AND WEAKENING CINH OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS...EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE AREA OF
MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE INVOF THE SFC LOW/PRESSURE TROUGH FROM WRN WV
SWWD INTO ERN KY/ERN TN. GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL 20-25 KT MID LEVEL
FLOW AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES NOTED ON REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT SEVERAL MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE SWWD THOUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL.

..CROSBIE.. 06/14/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

38228053 39277960 39927992 40008063 40178150 39538241
38778337 37938396 36468478 35158518 35108415 35148327



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