[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 261735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261735
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-261930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...OH...PA...WV...KY...VA...TN...NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261735Z - 261930Z

STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THESE
REGIONS.

EXTENSIVE AREA OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF INCREASING WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY
FROM TN/KY NEWD ACROSS ERN OH/SWRN PA AND PARTS OF WV/VA AND NC. THE
PLUME OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION COINCIDES WITH A BELT OF STRONGER
MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY. WEAK
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR MAY BE ENHANCED THROUGH LATE
TODAY AS THE RETROGRADING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...NOW CENTERED OVER
LOWER MI...BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND TRANSITION INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS WEAK WARM
FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OVER SRN OH/NRN KY...AS WELL AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WILL
FURTHER SUPPORT STORM INITIATION AND DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

DEEP-LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR
STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS NRN AREAS WHERE THE BAND OF STRONGER
MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH MODEST INSTABILITY.

..CARBIN.. 07/26/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

35718302 36598387 37868417 39008379 40298185 41058080
40947944 40507901 38167989 36288141

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