[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 241637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241637
WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-241800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SE OH...SW PA...WV...ERN KY...WRN VA...ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241637Z - 241800Z

AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WEATHER WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH OVER WRN TN
EXTENDING NEWD INTO WCNTRL KY. A MOIST AXIS IS LOCATED EAST OF THE
SFC TROUGH WITH LOWER TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS
PARKERSBURG WV. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE MOIST
AXIS SHOWN BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN RESPONSE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INITIATE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH STORM COVERAGE INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MCD AREA...TEMPS ARE COLD ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LOW CENTERED OVER FAR SE OH. THIS COMBINED
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 25 TO 40 KT
RANGE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE IN THE 18Z TO 22Z
TIMEFRAME.

..BROYLES.. 07/24/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

40098000 39378020 37948153 36348340 35858455 36038532
36688580 37638501 38828344 40468239 40668076

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